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Riyadh, Oktober 4, 2026 – Global oil prices remained firmly above the $100 threshold on Friday, underscoring the fragile balance between supply recovery and geopolitical uncertainty.
Brent crude settled at $102.60 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate closed at $93.14, both edging higher by 0.28% and 0.29% respectively.
Yet, the weekly trend revealed Brent slipping nearly 2%, a correction after its sharp 14% surge in September, while WTI retained a modest 4% monthly gain.
The market’s resilience is being tested by Beijing’s decision to halt refined fuel exports beyond Hong Kong and Macau for October.
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Traders fear shortages in diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel, particularly across Asia, where demand remains robust.
With China’s Golden Week holiday extending until October 7, clarity on whether restrictions will persist is unlikely in the near term, leaving refiners and importers in limbo.
At the same time, the Middle East has reemerged as a flashpoint.
The United States deployed a third aircraft carrier and up to 10,000 troops to the Gulf, signaling heightened military posture.
President Trump has hinted at possible renewed strikes on Iran after the midterm elections, raising the specter of supply disruptions through critical shipping lanes.
Analysts warn that even the perception of escalation could keep prices elevated.
Saudi Arabia and other Gulf producers have offered some relief, with crude export flows showing signs of recovery.
This improvement has tempered fears of an immediate supply crunch, though refined-product shortages remain acute.
Washington, meanwhile, has pressed Germany and France to release 120 million barrels of diesel from emergency reserves over six months.
Europe’s stockpile stands at 109 million tonnes, but policymakers face a dilemma balancing domestic energy security against U.S. strategic demands.
Market watchers describe the current environment as a precarious pause.
Tim Waterer of KCM Trade noted that traders are “taking a breather” after Thursday’s sharp moves, weighing Saudi flows against U.S. military buildup and China’s restrictions.
Mukesh Sahdev of XAnalysts added that U.S. pressure on Europe is acting as a moderating factor, preventing sharper price spikes.
The outlook remains volatile. Oil is likely to hover above $100 until clarity emerges on China’s export stance and U.S. military strategy in the Gulf.
For now, the market is caught between stronger Middle Eastern crude flows, tighter refined-product supplies, and escalating geopolitical risks a mix that ensures energy prices will remain a central concern for policymakers and businesses alike.
