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London, Oktober 6, 2026 – BMI has raised its Brent crude oil forecast, signaling a turbulent period ahead for global energy markets.
The firm now expects Brent to average $93 per barrel in 2026, up from $83 previously, before easing to $81 in 2027.
The revision reflects persistent supply constraints and geopolitical risks. BMI projects Brent will climb to $107 by the fourth quarter of 2026, driven by tightening inventories and elevated refining margins.
The ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran has delayed the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, keeping Gulf oil flows disrupted until at least early 2027.
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For 2027, the forecast points to a volatile trajectory.
Prices are expected to surge to $112 in the first quarter, before retreating sharply as Gulf production normalizes.
By the end of that year, Brent could fall to $67 per barrel, reflecting a significant supply rebound.
BMI anticipates global oil supply will expand by 10.5 percent in 2027, supported by recovering Gulf output and additional production from U.S. shale, Latin America, and Venezuela.
Demand growth, however, is projected to slow to just 1.2 percent year on year, creating conditions for oversupply.
Beyond 2027, BMI expects Brent to stabilize at around $70 per barrel between 2028 and 2030, as electrification, efficiency gains, and decarbonization weigh on demand.
Risks remain tilted to the upside. A deeper geopolitical escalation in the Middle East could push prices materially higher, particularly if energy infrastructure is targeted.
Conversely, a diplomatic breakthrough could accelerate the decline, easing market tightness sooner than expected.
For economies like Indonesia, where fuel subsidies and inflation risks are closely tied to global oil prices, the forecast underscores the challenge of navigating volatile energy costs.
Policymakers may need to brace for elevated prices through early 2027, followed by potential relief as supply balances improve.
BMI’s projections highlight the fragility of the global oil market, where geopolitical flashpoints and inventory dynamics continue to dictate price trajectories.
The coming quarters are likely to test both producers and consumers as they adapt to one of the most uncertain energy landscapes in recent years.
