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TEXAS – SpaceX is preparing for one of the most ambitious initial public offerings in history, with Elon Musk’s company targeting a staggering US$1.77 trillion valuation.
Yet, research firm Morningstar has cast doubt on the figure, suggesting the true worth of the space and satellite giant may be less than half that amount.
The IPO Ambition
SpaceX plans to list on Nasdaq on June 12, 2026, pricing shares at US$135 each. The offering bypasses the traditional pricing range, a move that underscores Musk’s confidence in investor appetite.
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At this valuation, Musk’s 50% stake could be worth US$752 billion, potentially positioning him as the world’s first trillionaire if shares rally post listing.
The IPO proceeds are expected to fund Musk’s most ambitious projects yet, including Mars missions and orbital data centers designed to power artificial intelligence in space.
Morningstar’s Skepticism
Morningstar analyst Nicolas Owens argues that SpaceX’s valuation is “significantly overestimated,” pegging the company closer to US$780 billion.
The firm highlights several concerns:
Musk’s xAI and chatbot Grok face intense competition from OpenAI and Anthropic, with unclear monetization pathways.
The concept remains speculative, with no proven commercial viability. While promising, the satellite broadband service faces regulatory hurdles and technical risks beyond SpaceX’s control.
Owens noted that investors may find “more attractive entry points” after the IPO, once initial enthusiasm subsides.
SpaceX’s financials reveal a mixed trajectory 2025 loss US$4.94 billion, largely due to heavy AI investments.
The IPO prospectus also disclosed a super voting share structure, ensuring Musk retains tight control over strategic decisions.
The offering is backed by Wall Street heavyweights including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, BofA Securities, Citigroup, and JPMorgan.
Analysts expect strong short-term demand given the limited float and Musk’s cult-like following among investors.
However, Morningstar warns that long-term risks remain, particularly if SpaceX’s AI and satellite ventures fail to deliver the expected returns.
SpaceX’s IPO is poised to be a landmark event in global markets, potentially reshaping the future of space exploration and AI.
Yet, Morningstar’s sobering assessment underscores the gap between Musk’s vision and financial fundamentals. For investors, the offering represents both extraordinary opportunity and significant risk.
