Google Advertisement
Whasington, November 2, 2026 – Bitcoin is heading into one of its most concentrated tests of the year. About $11 billion of Bitcoin options, roughly one third of all open contracts on Deribit, expire on Oct. 30, just days before midterm elections in the United States.
The timing matters. The largest cryptocurrency slipped below $80,000 this week and was trading around $79,900 to $81,100 on Thursday, under pressure after failing to hold gains after the Federal Reserve kept rates at 3.75 percent to 4 percent.
The expiry falls on the last Friday of the month, when hedging flows amplify moves.
Most contracts are unlikely to matter. Calls outnumber puts by nearly two to one, with heavy open interest at $90,000, $95,000 and $100,000. At current prices, about 86 percent are out of the money and would expire worthless, per Deribit.
Google Advertisement
The notional $11 billion covers roughly 135,000 Bitcoin, but actual settlement would move closer to $130 million.
The risk lies closer to spot. About 70 percent of gamma how quickly dealers must buy or sell Bitcoin to hedge as prices move is concentrated between $75,000 and $82,000, according to Adam Haeems, head of asset management at Tesseract Group.
Below $80,000, puts outnumber calls by more than two to one.
If dealers are short, hedging could accelerate a decline through $75,000 to $78,000.
If they are long, trades could cushion the fall. Public data do not reveal which side dealers hold, leaving traders guessing about direction but not about volatility.
What happens after expiry may be equally important.
Caroline Mauron, co-founder of Orbit Markets, said sellers are likely to slow new contracts until the Nov 3 midterms are decided.
That would thin the supply of options that normally dampens swings.
A Bloomberg Markets Pulse survey shows how much politics matters.
The median year-end forecast is $90,800 if Republicans retain Congress, $76,450 if Democrats win both chambers, and $84,100 under divided government.
With $11 billion rolling off and Washington in flux, Bitcoin’s next move may have less to do with crypto itself than with hedging mechanics.
