Google Advertisement
Seoul, Oktober 29, 2026 – South Korea’s central bank has issued a stark warning that the nation’s semiconductor exports could tumble by as much as US$100 billion if U.S. technology giants ease their aggressive spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure.
The Bank of Korea’s latest report underscores the vulnerability of Asia’s fourth-largest economy, where chips account for nearly half of total exports.
According to the analysis, a slowdown in AI related capital expenditure by firms such as Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Oracle could trigger a sharp contraction in demand for memory chips.
The central bank estimates that such a downturn would shave 0.4 percentage point off South Korea’s GDP growth in 2027, while the current account surplus could fall well below the projected US$430 billion.
Google Advertisement
The model assumes a 10 percent decline in chip unit prices, amplifying the potential shock.
The warning comes amid a surge in U.S. tech spending.
Capital expenditure by major firms doubled from US$40 billion in 2025 to US$80 billion in 2026, with projections of US$110 billion in 2027.
Yet the Bank of Korea cautioned that this trajectory is far from guaranteed, citing “considerable uncertainty” in the memory chip cycle and the risk of overcapacity.
South Korea’s reliance on semiconductors has long been a double-edged sword.
While the industry has powered decades of export growth, it leaves the economy exposed to external shocks.
A downturn in AI investment could ripple through the global supply chain, intensifying competition from Taiwan, China, and the United States, where chip production capacity is expanding rapidly.
The report suggests policymakers may need to diversify export bases and strengthen resilience against cyclical downturns.
Analysts argue that Seoul could bolster non chip industries, incentivize R&D in emerging sectors such as biotechnology and green technology, and reduce dependence on a single export engine.
The Bank of Korea’s warning highlights the delicate balance between global tech investment cycles and South Korea’s economic stability.
As AI reshapes industries worldwide, the country’s fortunes remain tethered to the spending decisions of Silicon Valley’s largest players a reminder that even the most advanced economies are not immune to volatility in the digital age.
