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Jeddah – Saudi Aramco has issued a stark warning that global fuel reserves are approaching critical thresholds, raising fears of widespread economic disruption if supply routes remain constrained.
The company’s chief executive, Amin Nasser, revealed that disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have already erased nearly one billion barrels from global inventories, with refined fuels such as gasoline and jet fuel now facing the sharpest shortages.
Mounting Pressure on Refined Fuels
While crude oil remains relatively available, the crisis has shifted toward refined products.
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Jet fuel inventories have fallen to just 45 days of demand, down from 50 earlier this year.
Naphtha stocks, a vital petrochemical feedstock, have plunged by 72 percent in the United Arab Emirates’ Fujairah hub and 37 percent in Europe’s Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp region.
Analysts warn that these declines could trigger cascading effects across aviation, plastics, and chemical industries.
Goldman Sachs noted that the “real stress point is no longer crude oil but refined fuels,” underscoring the vulnerability of sectors dependent on stable fuel supplies.
Market Volatility and Strategic Responses
Oil prices have swung dramatically in recent weeks, peaking at $126 per barrel in late April before retreating to around $100 as Washington signaled potential negotiations to ease tensions.
JPMorgan cautioned that commercial oil stocks in advanced economies could reach operational stress limits by June, leaving governments with little buffer against further Middle East shocks.
In response, Saudi Aramco is exploring export expansion through Yanbu port on the Red Sea, bypassing the Hormuz chokepoint.
Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has coordinated the largest emergency release of reserves in history, though capacity remains capped at two million barrels per day in Europe and the United States.
Global Governments Brace for Shortages
Governments worldwide are adopting conservation measures to mitigate the crisis.
Work-from-home mandates, fuel rationing, and public campaigns urging reduced consumption have been rolled out across Europe and Asia.
India has reassured citizens that it holds 60 days of crude and gas reserves, while the United Kingdom has denied imminent jet fuel shortages despite analysts warning that Europe’s reserves are “practically depleted.”
Asia outside China including South Africa, India, Thailand, and Taiwan faces heightened vulnerability due to limited refining capacity and dependence on imports.
Risks of Inflation and Industrial Strain
Economists warn that rising refined fuel prices could accelerate global inflation, compounding existing pressures from food and housing costs.
Airlines have already begun canceling flights due to tightening jet fuel supplies, while petrochemical industries face potential shutdowns as feedstock shortages deepen.
“The crisis is no longer hypothetical,” one analyst remarked. “It is unfolding in real time, and unless the Strait of Hormuz reopens by June, the world could face prolonged instability well into 2027.”
Saudi Aramco’s warning highlights a pivotal shift in the global energy crisis: from crude oil availability to refined fuel scarcity.
With inventories shrinking and emergency reserves nearing their limits, the coming months may determine whether governments can stabilize markets or whether industries worldwide will be forced into contraction.
